Voltando à questão já aqui discutida da redução do crescimento económico na Índia, um Outlook económico do ICRIER deste mês, junta-se às previsões, mas tenta enquadrar as causas para esse abrandamento e propor uma agenda de reformas
“[…] The Indian economy was on a cyclical slowdown after a five-year record boom and there was every hope that the economy will go for another strong growth phase after this brief slowdown. The global crisis has changed that outlook and instead will deepen and prolong Indian economy’s slowdown. It has dealt a severe blow to investment sentiments and consumer confidence in the economy. The policy response so far has been prompt in the form of monetary easing and fiscal expansion but the impact may not be much in the near term.
Therefore, a better way of responding to the crisis is the often repeated and now become cliché of kick-starting the ‘second round of reforms’ which is long overdue. India has to substantially relax its “permit and approval” system by carrying out procedural reforms which will raise the investment climate for both domestic and foreign investment. It should reform its education system at school and university levels. It should carry out reforms in agriculture in its various stages; from input to output to marketing. The government should press hard in changing policies and procedures to build world class infrastructure of power, roads, ports, airports, urban infrastructure, water and sanitation. India ranks very low among countries on regulatory environment with regard to enforcement of contracts, payment of taxes, business closure, licensing, property registration and setting up of business (World Bank, 2008). Reforms in these areas would be much more effective than just packages of monetary and fiscal stimuli to restore investor and consumer confidence.[…]”
in pag. 25; Conclusions and policy suggestions
Alguém conhece e pode avaliar a independência deste organismo? Pelas conclusões traçadas, não parece muito alinhado com perspectivas de avestruz ou com o tal wishful thinking …